Long-term outlook and short-term opportunity are different questions
Rémi Kerhoas, performance director at European search agency Eskimoz, argues in Search Engine Land that ChatGPT Ads may be worth your budget even if ChatGPT isn’t worth betting on long term. Those positions aren’t contradictory, he says — treating them as one is the mistake.
The AI platform war looks like the browser wars
ChatGPT in the Internet Explorer seat
Statcounter’s 2008–2026 browser data shows Internet Explorer collapsing, Firefox settling into a loyal niche and Chrome climbing steadily. Sensor Tower’s monthly active user data for AI assistants shows a similar pattern: ChatGPT surged, then flattened from September 2025; Gemini rose on a steady diagonal; Claude has traction but remains small. Kerhoas casts ChatGPT as Internet Explorer, Claude as Firefox and Gemini as Chrome — not because it’s the better product, but because of distribution.
Distribution decides
Chrome grew on Google’s distribution network and Android. Gemini sits inside Google Search, Android, Workspace and YouTube. ChatGPT must earn every user through downloads and habits, and by the author’s figures only 5% of its audience doesn’t overlap with Google’s. His benchmark: TikTok reaches roughly 2 billion monthly users, twice ChatGPT, so the share of budget you give TikTok is an honest guide to ChatGPT Ads’ strategic weight today.
OpenAI’s focus is B2B
Sam Altman called advertising a “last resort” business model at Harvard in October 2024, then launched ads 14 months later. Recent leadership changes brought in enterprise B2B executives rather than ad-sales veterans. According to Bloomberg, OpenAI expects $280 billion in 2030 revenue, with $100 billion from ChatGPT Ads and the rest from enterprise products. In Kerhoas’s reading, ads are the bridge; enterprise and API revenue are the destination.
Why you should still test
- It isn’t going away: Microsoft booked $24 billion in revenue from OpenAI in its latest fiscal year, per a Bloomberg analysis.
- It resembles early TikTok Ads: advertisers who waited despite clear signals spent years catching up with early testers.
- Q4 data will shape 2027 budgets: OpenAI expanded ChatGPT Ads to 31 European countries in August 2026, letting early advertisers buy inventory and insights while CPMs and CPCs are low.
- Competition is thin: in an SE Ranking study, one advertiser accounted for 13.56% of all ChatGPT ads, and ChatGPT shows at most one ad per prompt versus up to four ads on a Google results page.
How to act on it
With ChatGPT Ads expanding to 31 European countries and a pilot already running in Korea, the channel is growing. Kerhoas’s conclusion: test now while it’s cheap, build a knowledge edge, and don’t confuse a tactical bet with long-term platform strategy. Keep most resources on Google and Meta, and fund ChatGPT Ads as a test with a clear hypothesis and success metrics. The platform forecasts are the author’s view, so weigh them accordingly.