Kroger has shown it can forecast e-commerce purchase conversion from ad creative before a campaign launches. In a study with data firm Vidmob and trade group MMA Global, predictive creative scoring forecast e-commerce conversion with 81% accuracy, a result that could flip the usual “launch first, optimize later” order.
The study combined Kroger’s live campaign data, Vidmob’s creative data platform and MMA Global’s research standards. AI analyzed more than 1,900 video and image assets from Kroger campaigns on Meta and Google’s DV360, scoring variables such as messaging, narrative structure, branding and on-screen human interaction to identify creative attributes tied to e-commerce conversion.
Kellanova ran a similar effort with the same partners but used view-through rates as a proxy for sales. Kroger’s study skips the proxy and ties creative to actual sales.
Vidmob founder and executive chairman Alex Collmer describes two kinds of optimization: changing the creative itself, and moving dollars behind better creative. “Historically, people made [ads] and then, effectively, spent money blindly behind them,” he said. “The ability to get ahead of that and basically not spend behind assets that aren’t going to work is a pretty big deal.”
He also questioned why creative is labeled non-working spend: “Every marketer you talk to says creative is 50% to 70% of results. How on earth can the thing that’s the far majority of results be the waste?”
Generative AI and creators are driving what Collmer calls a 10x to 100x expansion in asset volume. Without an upfront signal, brands spend more and more before they know what content will do. When competitors use the same AI tools, he argues, the tools themselves aren’t an advantage; proprietary creative performance data is. Creators, whose pay depends on performance, are hungry for that data too.
You don’t need a retailer-sized dataset to start. Tag past creative by attributes such as message, opening scene, brand timing and presence of people, and store it alongside conversion results. As asset volume grows, that record becomes your brief for the next round. For examples of format and message moving results, see How Revlon Used Amazon Interactive Video Ads to Get a 9.8x Higher CTR — Dynamic TV Creative Bridges TV and Purchase and Why Omaha Steaks Dropped Vague ‘Quality’ Claims — Its ‘No Bull’ Campaign Lifted Conversions 46% in Two Weeks.
It uses AI to analyze creative attributes such as messaging, narrative structure, branding and on-screen human interaction to forecast ad performance before media is activated.
It forecast e-commerce conversion with 81% accuracy, and creative aligned with its recommendations improved conversion rates 4x on average.
Tag past ads by attributes like message, opening scene and brand timing, and track them with conversion data to guide future creative decisions.
To apply what you just read to your own site, start with a free audit of where things are now.
A strategist replies within 24 hours on business days.
Naver’s shopping AI agent lifted transaction value 82% since June. Here’s how to prepare for agentic commerce: structured product attributes, agent-readable product pages, clear reasons to buy and trust signals.
Shipping delays, order cutoffs and fulfillment updates all need different timing and audiences. Here’s a simple framework for e-commerce customer messaging — manual, recurring and automated sends — plus SMS fallback.
Korean D2C brand Wiselly now sells every product at cost for a ₩2,990 monthly membership. How cutting distribution, marketing and packaging costs built its zero-margin commerce model.